Let me refresh your memory just a few years ago the battle for the Democratic nomination was an all out, knock down, mud throwing event between President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and lasted for a long time.
The ratings for the cable outlets along with ad revenues were robust due to a long primary season and we are going to see it with Newt Gingrich, Rep. Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Governor Romney.
Rep. Ron Paul and Governor Mitt Romney have a financial war chest and boots on the ground, Governor Romney has an even stronger organization on the ground than Rep. Ron Paul.
President Obama had the strongest organization in history and plenty of cash, two things Governor Mitt Romney has. Romney is also getting key endorsements which means the smart bet that is unfolding is Governor Romney as nominee versus the President. Despite the plethora of endorsements it's hard to beat Air Force One.
Newt Gingrich (when he avoids pontification) is great on his feet, pressing flesh, during interviews and debates. My gut tells me that Governor Romney has huge financial support that doesn't want to write another round of checks to the Gingrich campaign hence early endorsements.
If Newt Gingrich loses to Rep. Ron Paul in both New Hampshire and Iowa, I think he's done because of money. I give Rep. Ron Paul a 100 hundred percent chance of him beating Newt Gingrich in Iowa and seventy thirty in New Hampshire. If it snows in Iowa or New Hampshire, Rep. Ron Paul will win defeating Newt Gingrich in both.
What's the chance of snow in New Hampshire and Iowa on voting day? I went to Prep School at Exeter, I give the chance of lousy weather about 80 percent on the voting day in New Hampshire, Iowa isn't balmy in January either. If the weather is lousy in either state Newt Gingrich is toast versus Ron Paul. Ron Paul supporters are hard core and he has seen steady growth and he sticks to his theme, like it or not, and has done so for all of us political history. He actually tells the truth, a novel position in politics.
It should be fun to watch because the mud slinging is getting really interesting. See you at the polls.
written by Brad Richdale copyright 2011 all rights reserved
blog founded by Bradford Richdale
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